Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Woolworths Holdings Limited (WHL.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.97 - $72.23$59.44
Multi-Stage$74.59 - $81.44$77.96
Blended Fair Value$68.70
Current Price$51.76
Upside32.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.38%-0.06%2.243.013.151.560.001.992.363.063.322.71
YoY Growth---25.79%-4.46%102.47%0.00%-100.00%-15.71%-22.90%-7.73%22.36%20.37%
Dividend Yield--4.32%4.74%4.42%2.87%0.00%6.01%4.88%5.52%5.38%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,036.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,775.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)261.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,007.20629.50377.70
Cash Retained (M)261.00261.00261.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,007.20-629.50-377.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-746.20-368.50-116.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)909.49909.49909.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.82-0.41-0.13
LTM Dividend per Share5.255.255.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.82-0.41-0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.434.855.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate-0.05%0.95%1.95%
Fair Value$47.97$59.44$72.23
Upside / Downside-7.31%14.83%39.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,036.005,083.955,132.375,181.245,230.585,280.385,438.80
Payout Ratio94.82%93.85%92.89%91.93%90.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,775.004,771.494,767.484,762.954,757.914,752.355,030.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate-0.05%0.95%1.95%
Year 1 PV (M)4,326.954,370.244,413.53
Year 2 PV (M)3,920.533,999.374,078.99
Year 3 PV (M)3,551.903,659.583,769.41
Year 4 PV (M)3,217.583,348.293,482.94
Year 5 PV (M)2,914.393,063.133,217.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,911.4652,458.6955,108.87
Equity Value (M)67,842.8170,899.2974,071.62
Shares Outstanding (M)909.49909.49909.49
Fair Value$74.59$77.96$81.44
Upside / Downside44.12%50.61%57.35%

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