Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

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Sector

Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$406.11 - $478.47$448.39
Multi-Stage$141.89 - $155.53$148.58
Blended Fair Value$298.49
Current Price$175.80
Upside69.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.54%17.77%1.171.050.940.850.770.680.590.510.360.26
YoY Growth--11.70%11.35%10.36%10.17%14.18%14.76%15.59%42.60%40.24%12.03%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.61%0.68%0.61%0.72%0.87%0.67%0.71%0.61%0.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)622.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)324.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)297.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124.4177.7646.65
Cash Retained (M)297.10297.10297.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-124.41-77.76-46.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.69219.34250.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)258.56258.56258.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.850.97
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.850.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.922.112.23
WACC / Discount Rate4.79%4.79%4.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$406.11$448.39$478.47
Upside / Downside131.01%155.06%172.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)622.05662.49705.55751.41800.25852.27877.83
Payout Ratio52.24%59.79%67.34%74.90%82.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)324.96396.11475.14562.77659.79767.04812.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.79%4.79%4.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)374.46378.01381.56
Year 2 PV (M)424.63432.72440.88
Year 3 PV (M)475.46489.11503.02
Year 4 PV (M)526.97547.23568.08
Year 5 PV (M)579.15607.12636.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,305.3135,962.2737,682.64
Equity Value (M)36,685.9838,416.4740,212.35
Shares Outstanding (M)258.56258.56258.56
Fair Value$141.89$148.58$155.53
Upside / Downside-19.29%-15.48%-11.53%

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