Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Warpaint London PLC (W7L.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.12 - $17.89$11.68
Multi-Stage$6.02 - $6.57$6.29
Blended Fair Value$8.99
Current Price$4.17
Upside115.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.92%2.91%0.090.070.060.050.030.040.040.020.040.02
YoY Growth--27.55%23.56%10.90%96.46%-36.36%7.38%68.00%-33.14%43.37%-64.74%
Dividend Yield--1.79%1.95%3.32%3.39%3.57%6.00%4.07%0.98%2.56%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.564.102.46
Cash Retained (M)19.6219.6219.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.56-4.10-2.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0615.5217.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.2379.2379.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.12$11.68$17.89
Upside / Downside94.74%180.18%328.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32.7834.9137.1839.6042.1744.9146.26
Payout Ratio40.16%50.12%60.09%70.06%80.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.1617.5022.3427.7433.7540.4242.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15.7915.9416.09
Year 2 PV (M)18.1918.5318.88
Year 3 PV (M)20.3720.9621.55
Year 4 PV (M)22.3623.2224.11
Year 5 PV (M)24.1625.3326.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)376.15394.32413.18
Equity Value (M)477.02498.30520.35
Shares Outstanding (M)79.2379.2379.23
Fair Value$6.02$6.29$6.57
Upside / Downside44.37%50.81%57.49%

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