Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Veranda Resort Public Company Limited (VRANDA.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.96 - $3.07$2.47
Multi-Stage$4.73 - $5.20$4.96
Blended Fair Value$3.72
Current Price$4.46
Upside-16.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.100.100.320.160.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-68.52%97.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%1.60%1.46%6.84%1.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.148.224.93
Cash Retained (M)25.7625.7625.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.14-8.22-4.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.6217.5520.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)320.09320.09320.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.96$2.47$3.07
Upside / Downside-55.96%-44.57%-31.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.7265.0764.4263.7763.1362.5064.38
Payout Ratio60.80%66.64%72.48%78.32%84.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.9643.3646.6949.9553.1356.2559.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.4240.8341.24
Year 2 PV (M)40.5741.4042.24
Year 3 PV (M)40.4541.7042.98
Year 4 PV (M)40.1241.7843.49
Year 5 PV (M)39.5941.6543.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,311.681,379.981,451.10
Equity Value (M)1,512.831,587.351,664.86
Shares Outstanding (M)320.09320.09320.09
Fair Value$4.73$4.96$5.20
Upside / Downside5.97%11.19%16.62%

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