Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Friedrich Vorwerk Group SE (VH2.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.23 - $32.92$28.01
Multi-Stage$34.16 - $37.55$35.83
Blended Fair Value$31.92
Current Price$81.50
Upside-60.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-21.16%0.00%0.120.120.201.250.620.390.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-40.00%-84.07%101.82%57.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.25%0.78%2.04%3.30%1.23%0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.168.855.31
Cash Retained (M)64.8064.8064.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.16-8.85-5.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.6455.9559.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.0320.0320.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.532.792.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.532.792.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.833.093.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$23.23$28.01$32.92
Upside / Downside-71.50%-65.63%-59.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.8070.0969.3968.7068.0167.3369.35
Payout Ratio8.47%24.78%41.08%57.39%73.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.0017.3728.5139.4350.1260.6064.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)15.6415.8015.96
Year 2 PV (M)23.1223.5924.07
Year 3 PV (M)28.7929.6830.59
Year 4 PV (M)32.9534.3235.73
Year 5 PV (M)35.8837.7539.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)547.93576.46606.17
Equity Value (M)684.31717.60752.21
Shares Outstanding (M)20.0320.0320.03
Fair Value$34.16$35.83$37.55
Upside / Downside-58.08%-56.04%-53.92%

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