Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Unibel S.A. (UNBL.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$902.58 - $1,546.22$1,181.06
Multi-Stage$1,728.67 - $1,901.18$1,813.25
Blended Fair Value$1,497.16
Current Price$980.00
Upside52.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.84%-6.41%9.0710.508.4011.037.4915.2217.5720.9120.1316.13
YoY Growth---13.64%25.00%-23.81%47.13%-50.78%-13.33%-15.99%3.85%24.85%-8.35%
Dividend Yield--0.93%1.05%0.85%1.11%1.27%2.62%2.39%2.35%2.14%1.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)151.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.3818.9911.39
Cash Retained (M)100.10100.10100.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.38-18.99-11.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.7281.1188.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.092.092.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.2838.7242.34
LTM Dividend per Share24.7324.7324.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.2838.7242.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend58.0163.4567.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.11%0.89%1.89%
Fair Value$902.58$1,181.06$1,546.22
Upside / Downside-7.90%20.52%57.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)151.90153.25154.62155.99157.38158.78163.55
Payout Ratio34.10%45.28%56.46%67.64%78.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.8069.3987.30105.51124.05142.90151.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.11%0.89%1.89%
Year 1 PV (M)64.6365.2865.92
Year 2 PV (M)75.7277.2478.78
Year 3 PV (M)85.2387.8290.46
Year 4 PV (M)93.3297.12101.03
Year 5 PV (M)100.13105.24110.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,202.393,365.933,536.08
Equity Value (M)3,621.423,798.623,982.83
Shares Outstanding (M)2.092.092.09
Fair Value$1,728.67$1,813.25$1,901.18
Upside / Downside76.39%85.03%94.00%

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