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Definitive Analysis

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Trifork Holding AG (TRIFOR.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.55 - $143.34$134.33
Multi-Stage$18.98 - $20.79$19.87
Blended Fair Value$77.10
Current Price$12.52
Upside515.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.06%0.00%0.100.140.390.560.050.100.120.070.000.07
YoY Growth---28.24%-64.28%-29.87%1,101.22%-53.83%-18.27%80.17%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.87%1.83%1.92%0.20%0.43%0.52%0.29%0.00%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.821.761.06
Cash Retained (M)12.4912.4912.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.82-1.76-1.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.6710.7211.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.5619.5619.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.55$134.33$143.34
Upside / Downside271.82%972.89%1,044.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.1015.0215.9917.0318.1419.3219.90
Payout Ratio11.44%27.15%42.86%58.58%74.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.614.086.869.9813.4817.3918.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3.783.823.85
Year 2 PV (M)5.906.016.12
Year 3 PV (M)7.968.198.42
Year 4 PV (M)9.9710.3510.75
Year 5 PV (M)11.9312.5113.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)331.83347.86364.50
Equity Value (M)371.37388.74406.75
Shares Outstanding (M)19.5619.5619.56
Fair Value$18.98$19.87$20.79
Upside / Downside51.62%58.71%66.07%

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