Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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TotalEnergies SE (TOTB.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.82 - $126.17$97.27
Multi-Stage$133.71 - $146.81$140.13
Blended Fair Value$118.70
Current Price$61.41
Upside93.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.75%0.95%3.523.303.343.612.933.082.161.161.171.25
YoY Growth--6.84%-1.14%-7.58%23.03%-4.62%42.72%85.89%-0.68%-6.47%-61.07%
Dividend Yield--5.46%4.66%5.66%7.09%6.29%7.88%3.85%2.04%2.31%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,160.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,035.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,125.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,832.121,770.081,062.05
Cash Retained (M)6,125.116,125.116,125.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,832.12-1,770.08-1,062.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,292.994,355.035,063.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,278.782,278.782,278.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.451.912.22
LTM Dividend per Share3.533.533.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.451.912.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.975.445.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Fair Value$74.82$97.27$126.17
Upside / Downside21.83%58.39%105.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,160.6214,317.2914,475.6914,635.8514,797.7714,961.4915,410.34
Payout Ratio56.75%63.40%70.05%76.70%83.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,035.519,076.6410,139.8311,225.4312,333.8113,465.3514,254.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Year 1 PV (M)8,417.968,502.058,586.14
Year 2 PV (M)8,721.568,896.689,073.54
Year 3 PV (M)8,954.659,225.709,502.16
Year 4 PV (M)9,124.849,494.949,876.19
Year 5 PV (M)9,239.059,709.8210,199.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)260,246.05273,506.82287,302.73
Equity Value (M)304,704.11319,336.02334,540.35
Shares Outstanding (M)2,278.782,278.782,278.78
Fair Value$133.71$140.13$146.81
Upside / Downside117.74%128.20%139.06%

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