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The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.51 - $643.48$248.19
Multi-Stage$87.25 - $95.35$91.23
Blended Fair Value$169.71
Current Price$140.14
Upside21.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.99%13.47%1.461.311.181.110.250.950.820.680.580.48
YoY Growth--11.05%10.83%6.96%350.30%-74.06%16.15%20.75%17.37%19.61%16.82%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.38%1.50%1.81%0.35%1.96%1.51%1.63%1.46%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,119.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,793.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,326.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,023.80639.88383.93
Cash Retained (M)3,326.003,326.003,326.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,023.80-639.88-383.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,302.202,686.132,942.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,131.001,131.001,131.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.042.382.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.591.591.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.042.382.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.623.964.19
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$141.51$248.19$643.48
Upside / Downside0.98%77.10%359.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,119.005,451.745,806.106,183.496,585.427,013.477,223.88
Payout Ratio35.03%46.02%57.02%68.01%79.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,793.002,508.953,310.394,205.435,202.836,312.136,682.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,297.052,318.822,340.59
Year 2 PV (M)2,774.832,827.682,881.03
Year 3 PV (M)3,227.333,319.983,414.38
Year 4 PV (M)3,655.543,796.123,940.72
Year 5 PV (M)4,060.374,256.484,460.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,669.8286,662.8190,808.61
Equity Value (M)98,684.94103,181.89107,845.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,131.001,131.001,131.00
Fair Value$87.25$91.23$95.35
Upside / Downside-37.74%-34.90%-31.96%

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