Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Fibra Terrafina (TERRA13.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.66 - $225.23$123.07
Multi-Stage$81.59 - $89.53$85.48
Blended Fair Value$104.28
Current Price$36.49
Upside185.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.06%10.38%2.901.731.932.122.412.912.862.191.621.45
YoY Growth--67.31%-10.18%-8.83%-12.38%-16.94%1.53%30.69%35.34%11.25%34.76%
Dividend Yield--7.81%3.83%5.81%7.55%7.93%11.08%9.44%7.40%5.29%4.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,533.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)358.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,175.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)506.76316.73190.04
Cash Retained (M)2,175.252,175.252,175.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-506.76-316.73-190.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,668.481,858.521,985.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)782.41782.41782.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.132.382.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.132.382.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.592.833.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate3.20%4.20%5.20%
Fair Value$78.66$123.07$225.23
Upside / Downside115.56%237.27%517.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,533.822,640.172,750.992,866.462,986.783,112.153,205.52
Payout Ratio14.15%29.32%44.49%59.66%74.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)358.57774.131,223.941,710.152,235.022,800.942,965.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate3.20%4.20%5.20%
Year 1 PV (M)719.25726.22733.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,056.571,077.141,097.92
Year 3 PV (M)1,371.641,411.901,452.94
Year 4 PV (M)1,665.541,731.041,798.46
Year 5 PV (M)1,939.302,035.102,134.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,080.8859,900.6262,830.70
Equity Value (M)63,833.1866,882.0370,047.86
Shares Outstanding (M)782.41782.41782.41
Fair Value$81.59$85.48$89.53
Upside / Downside123.58%134.26%145.35%

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