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AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 (TBB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.95 - $25.09$21.51
Multi-Stage$51.16 - $56.55$53.80
Blended Fair Value$37.65
Current Price$28.24
Upside33.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.23%-1.50%1.141.131.372.092.082.071.861.671.641.42
YoY Growth--0.88%-17.48%-34.57%0.75%0.46%11.02%11.40%2.04%15.66%6.78%
Dividend Yield--4.03%6.45%7.11%11.72%9.09%9.39%7.72%6.21%5.22%4.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,245.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,205.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,040.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,449.002,780.631,668.38
Cash Retained (M)14,040.0014,040.0014,040.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,449.00-2,780.63-1,668.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,591.0011,259.3812,371.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,204.257,204.257,204.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.561.72
LTM Dividend per Share1.141.141.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.561.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-6.39%-5.39%-4.39%
Fair Value$17.95$21.51$25.09
Upside / Downside-36.45%-23.84%-11.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,245.0021,046.9619,913.4318,840.9617,826.2516,866.1817,372.17
Payout Ratio36.88%47.51%58.13%68.75%79.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,205.009,998.9411,575.8412,953.8914,149.9315,179.5616,069.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-6.39%-5.39%-4.39%
Year 1 PV (M)9,289.519,388.749,487.98
Year 2 PV (M)9,991.5010,206.1110,422.99
Year 3 PV (M)10,387.6610,724.1111,067.76
Year 4 PV (M)10,541.7110,999.4111,471.85
Year 5 PV (M)10,506.4311,079.7011,677.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)317,852.13335,195.40353,287.60
Equity Value (M)368,568.94387,593.47407,415.90
Shares Outstanding (M)7,204.257,204.257,204.25
Fair Value$51.16$53.80$56.55
Upside / Downside81.16%90.51%100.26%

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