Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.A. (TAEE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$269.92 - $497.21$465.96
Multi-Stage$78.95 - $86.39$82.60
Blended Fair Value$274.28
Current Price$12.13
Upside2,161.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.10%-0.04%1.461.462.432.251.610.951.390.881.351.10
YoY Growth--0.25%-39.96%7.79%40.26%69.83%-32.17%57.85%-34.70%23.06%-25.10%
Dividend Yield--12.93%12.07%20.91%15.17%12.45%10.62%14.97%11.32%13.09%10.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,722.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)846.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)875.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)344.52215.32129.19
Cash Retained (M)875.72875.72875.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-344.52-215.32-129.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)531.21660.40746.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)689.00689.00689.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.961.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.961.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.002.192.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$269.92$465.96$497.21
Upside / Downside2,125.24%3,741.39%3,999.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,722.581,834.551,953.792,080.792,216.042,360.082,430.89
Payout Ratio49.16%57.33%65.50%73.66%81.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)846.861,051.741,279.681,532.811,813.442,124.082,248.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)980.29989.58998.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,111.711,132.881,154.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,241.141,276.771,313.07
Year 4 PV (M)1,368.611,421.241,475.38
Year 5 PV (M)1,494.141,566.311,641.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,197.2250,525.1752,942.21
Equity Value (M)54,393.1156,911.9559,525.03
Shares Outstanding (M)689.00689.00689.00
Fair Value$78.95$82.60$86.39
Upside / Downside550.83%580.96%612.23%

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