Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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National Central Cooling Company PJSC (TABREED.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.42 - $39.53$37.05
Multi-Stage$6.31 - $6.90$6.60
Blended Fair Value$21.82
Current Price$2.87
Upside660.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.32%29.62%0.160.140.060.050.100.090.080.060.060.06
YoY Growth--14.95%130.64%6.54%-45.24%10.53%18.75%23.08%8.33%-6.19%427.07%
Dividend Yield--5.75%4.15%1.95%2.22%3.66%4.99%5.06%4.09%3.15%5.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)564.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)440.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)124.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)112.9970.6242.37
Cash Retained (M)124.35124.35124.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-112.99-70.62-42.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.3753.7481.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,841.962,841.962,841.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.42$37.05$39.53
Upside / Downside611.45%1,190.88%1,277.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)564.94601.66640.76682.41726.77774.01797.23
Payout Ratio77.99%80.39%82.79%85.20%87.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)440.58483.67530.51581.38636.63696.61737.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)450.64454.91459.19
Year 2 PV (M)460.52469.30478.15
Year 3 PV (M)470.22483.72497.48
Year 4 PV (M)479.75498.20517.17
Year 5 PV (M)489.10512.72537.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,587.4216,340.3017,121.99
Equity Value (M)17,937.6618,759.1519,611.23
Shares Outstanding (M)2,841.962,841.962,841.96
Fair Value$6.31$6.60$6.90
Upside / Downside119.92%129.99%140.44%

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