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Definitive Analysis

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SVI Public Company Limited (SVI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.84 - $77.12$72.27
Multi-Stage$10.99 - $12.01$11.49
Blended Fair Value$41.88
Current Price$5.95
Upside603.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-41.90%-5.66%0.140.260.230.110.002.050.080.080.080.00
YoY Growth---48.08%13.04%109.09%0.00%-100.00%2,338.10%-0.65%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.86%4.12%2.32%1.33%0.00%105.84%1.76%1.95%1.54%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)829.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)516.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)312.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)165.84103.6562.19
Cash Retained (M)312.41312.41312.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-165.84-103.65-62.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)146.57208.76250.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,138.302,138.302,138.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.84$72.27$77.12
Upside / Downside367.95%1,114.64%1,196.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)829.18883.07940.471,001.611,066.711,136.051,170.13
Payout Ratio62.32%67.86%73.39%78.93%84.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)516.77599.24690.25790.56900.991,022.441,082.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)556.47561.74567.02
Year 2 PV (M)595.23606.57618.01
Year 3 PV (M)633.07651.24669.76
Year 4 PV (M)670.00695.77722.27
Year 5 PV (M)706.04740.14775.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,335.4821,317.6922,337.49
Equity Value (M)23,496.2824,573.1525,690.10
Shares Outstanding (M)2,138.302,138.302,138.30
Fair Value$10.99$11.49$12.01
Upside / Downside84.68%93.14%101.92%

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