Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Suparma Tbk (SPMA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$325.22 - $505.08$408.41
Multi-Stage$748.48 - $824.46$785.72
Blended Fair Value$597.06
Current Price$196.92
Upside203.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%11.970.000.0010.030.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.72%0.00%0.00%2.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108,892.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,759.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)71,132.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,778.5613,611.608,166.96
Cash Retained (M)71,132.8371,132.8371,132.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,778.56-13,611.60-8,166.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)49,354.2757,521.2362,965.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,154.093,154.093,154.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share15.6518.2419.96
LTM Dividend per Share11.9711.9711.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share15.6518.2419.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.6230.2131.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$325.22$408.41$505.08
Upside / Downside65.15%107.40%156.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108,892.79107,803.86106,725.82105,658.57104,601.98103,555.96106,662.64
Payout Ratio34.68%45.74%56.81%67.87%78.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,759.9649,310.5860,626.4271,711.0182,567.8493,200.3698,662.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45,909.7346,378.1946,846.66
Year 2 PV (M)52,552.2253,630.1954,719.10
Year 3 PV (M)57,873.4859,663.2561,489.55
Year 4 PV (M)62,039.6464,610.8967,261.25
Year 5 PV (M)65,198.9468,594.0072,129.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,077,190.332,185,354.452,297,978.25
Equity Value (M)2,360,764.342,478,230.982,600,423.86
Shares Outstanding (M)3,154.093,154.093,154.09
Fair Value$748.48$785.72$824.46
Upside / Downside280.09%299.00%318.68%

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