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Sonic Interfreight Public Company Limited (SONIC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.48 - $34.69$32.51
Multi-Stage$5.07 - $5.55$5.31
Blended Fair Value$18.91
Current Price$1.48
Upside1,177.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%17.13%0.050.100.100.040.030.000.050.270.010.02
YoY Growth---49.73%5.89%160.83%10.00%0.00%-100.00%-82.03%1,732.61%-14.13%58.64%
Dividend Yield--3.38%6.56%4.20%0.97%1.12%0.00%3.72%13.89%0.76%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)93.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7817.3610.42
Cash Retained (M)93.0593.0593.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.78-17.36-10.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.2875.6982.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)796.13796.13796.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.48$32.51$34.69
Upside / Downside878.50%2,096.75%2,244.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.88147.91157.52167.76178.66190.28195.99
Payout Ratio33.00%44.40%55.80%67.20%78.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.8365.6787.89112.73140.43171.25181.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.0761.6562.23
Year 2 PV (M)76.0277.4778.93
Year 3 PV (M)90.6893.2895.93
Year 4 PV (M)105.05109.09113.25
Year 5 PV (M)119.14124.89130.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,586.443,759.673,939.53
Equity Value (M)4,038.404,226.054,420.73
Shares Outstanding (M)796.13796.13796.13
Fair Value$5.07$5.31$5.55
Upside / Downside242.74%258.66%275.19%

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