Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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SJW Group (SJW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$191.03 - $630.42$590.80
Multi-Stage$83.86 - $91.70$87.71
Blended Fair Value$339.25
Current Price$51.84
Upside554.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.84%13.13%1.511.391.261.161.060.990.670.620.480.46
YoY Growth--8.82%9.92%8.58%9.94%6.96%47.93%8.17%28.82%4.24%4.66%
Dividend Yield--2.77%2.49%1.66%1.67%1.68%1.71%1.10%1.17%1.00%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)109.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.8613.668.20
Cash Retained (M)52.3752.3752.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.86-13.66-8.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.5138.7144.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.4734.4734.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.121.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.121.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.542.772.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$191.03$590.80$630.42
Upside / Downside268.49%1,039.66%1,116.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)109.28116.38123.95132.00140.58149.72154.21
Payout Ratio52.08%59.66%67.25%74.83%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.9169.4483.3598.78115.86134.75142.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.90%6.90%6.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)64.3464.9565.56
Year 2 PV (M)71.5772.9474.31
Year 3 PV (M)78.6080.8683.16
Year 4 PV (M)85.4388.7292.10
Year 5 PV (M)92.0796.52101.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,498.902,619.602,744.92
Equity Value (M)2,890.933,023.593,161.19
Shares Outstanding (M)34.4734.4734.47
Fair Value$83.86$87.71$91.70
Upside / Downside61.77%69.19%76.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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