Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.29 - $642.22$227.64
Multi-Stage$300.99 - $332.06$316.22
Blended Fair Value$271.93
Current Price$98.85
Upside175.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-8.89%-1.28%1.150.940.860.450.461.821.861.801.781.58
YoY Growth--21.80%9.02%92.63%-2.06%-74.94%-2.03%3.27%1.19%12.67%21.34%
Dividend Yield--1.87%1.00%1.17%0.64%0.77%20.09%8.04%4.76%2.71%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)145.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)93.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.0018.1310.88
Cash Retained (M)93.5093.5093.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.00-18.13-10.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.5075.3882.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.4342.4342.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.781.95
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.781.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.732.993.16
WACC / Discount Rate1.89%1.89%1.89%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Fair Value$117.29$227.64$642.22
Upside / Downside18.65%130.29%549.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)145.00145.83146.66147.50148.34149.19153.66
Payout Ratio35.52%46.41%57.31%68.21%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.5067.6884.05100.60117.34134.27142.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.89%1.89%1.89%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Year 1 PV (M)65.7766.4367.09
Year 2 PV (M)79.3680.9682.58
Year 3 PV (M)92.2995.1097.97
Year 4 PV (M)104.60108.87113.26
Year 5 PV (M)116.30122.26128.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,311.3712,942.1313,598.49
Equity Value (M)12,769.6813,415.7414,087.84
Shares Outstanding (M)42.4342.4342.43
Fair Value$300.99$316.22$332.06
Upside / Downside204.50%219.90%235.93%

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