Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Spear Reit Limited (SEA.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.92 - $102.88$73.61
Multi-Stage$53.75 - $58.75$56.21
Blended Fair Value$64.91
Current Price$9.68
Upside570.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.63%0.00%0.880.660.640.490.580.670.560.320.000.00
YoY Growth--34.31%2.61%31.97%-16.70%-13.22%20.88%75.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.14%7.90%8.76%5.71%11.47%7.56%5.30%3.31%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)887.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)402.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)485.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.57110.9866.59
Cash Retained (M)485.04485.04485.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.57-110.98-66.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)307.47374.06418.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)260.96260.96260.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.181.431.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.541.541.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.181.431.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.722.983.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate3.63%4.63%5.63%
Fair Value$53.92$73.61$102.88
Upside / Downside456.99%660.46%962.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)887.86928.92971.891,016.841,063.871,113.071,146.46
Payout Ratio45.37%54.30%63.22%72.15%81.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)402.82504.36614.44733.62862.521,001.761,060.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate3.63%4.63%5.63%
Year 1 PV (M)458.90463.33467.76
Year 2 PV (M)508.67518.53528.49
Year 3 PV (M)552.59568.74585.21
Year 4 PV (M)591.11614.26638.09
Year 5 PV (M)624.66655.39687.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,291.8911,847.3512,424.46
Equity Value (M)14,027.8214,667.6115,331.32
Shares Outstanding (M)260.96260.96260.96
Fair Value$53.75$56.21$58.75
Upside / Downside455.31%480.64%506.91%

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