Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (SANB11.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.34 - $319.41$280.00
Multi-Stage$41.77 - $45.63$43.67
Blended Fair Value$161.83
Current Price$29.40
Upside450.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.17%9.85%0.750.730.991.331.380.930.810.760.430.54
YoY Growth--3.09%-26.28%-25.38%-3.63%47.84%14.44%7.50%76.04%-19.59%81.82%
Dividend Yield--2.82%2.59%3.70%3.66%3.62%3.59%1.90%2.00%1.62%3.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,985.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,115.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,870.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,397.131,498.21898.92
Cash Retained (M)2,870.012,870.012,870.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,397.13-1,498.21-898.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)472.881,371.801,971.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,462.767,462.767,462.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.180.26
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.180.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$88.34$280.00$319.41
Upside / Downside200.46%852.39%986.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,985.6512,764.7113,594.4214,478.0615,419.1316,421.3716,914.01
Payout Ratio76.05%78.84%81.63%84.42%87.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,115.6410,064.1711,097.5012,222.6413,447.1614,779.2415,645.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,314.459,402.739,491.02
Year 2 PV (M)9,505.689,686.749,869.50
Year 3 PV (M)9,689.529,967.6710,251.09
Year 4 PV (M)9,866.1310,245.5510,635.82
Year 5 PV (M)10,035.6910,520.4111,023.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)263,325.46276,044.18289,249.67
Equity Value (M)311,736.92325,867.29340,520.80
Shares Outstanding (M)7,462.767,462.767,462.76
Fair Value$41.77$43.67$45.63
Upside / Downside42.08%48.52%55.20%

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