Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Kedoya Adyaraya Tbk (RSGK.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$288.43 - $427.22$354.78
Multi-Stage$529.85 - $582.70$555.76
Blended Fair Value$455.27
Current Price$980.00
Upside-53.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%11.0096.0086.000.000.000.005.380.000.000.00
YoY Growth---88.54%11.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.12%8.35%7.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33,621.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,226.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)23,394.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,724.264,202.662,521.60
Cash Retained (M)23,394.8923,394.8923,394.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,724.26-4,202.66-2,521.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)16,670.6319,192.2320,873.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)929.68929.68929.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.9320.6422.45
LTM Dividend per Share11.0011.0011.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.9320.6422.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.9331.6433.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.83%7.83%7.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$288.43$354.78$427.22
Upside / Downside-70.57%-63.80%-56.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33,621.3233,285.1032,952.2532,622.7332,296.5031,973.5432,932.74
Payout Ratio30.42%42.33%54.25%66.17%78.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,226.4314,090.6517,876.5621,585.3525,218.1728,776.1830,462.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.83%7.83%7.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12,935.4513,067.4513,199.44
Year 2 PV (M)15,065.5715,374.6015,686.76
Year 3 PV (M)16,699.8017,216.2517,743.25
Year 4 PV (M)17,910.8718,653.1919,418.35
Year 5 PV (M)18,762.3319,739.3320,756.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)411,210.28432,622.96454,918.49
Equity Value (M)492,584.30516,673.77541,722.90
Shares Outstanding (M)929.68929.68929.68
Fair Value$529.85$555.76$582.70
Upside / Downside-45.93%-43.29%-40.54%

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