Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT RMK Energy Tbk (RMKE.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$342.23 - $485.27$412.79
Multi-Stage$502.75 - $552.73$527.25
Blended Fair Value$470.02
Current Price$1,820.00
Upside-74.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%7.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)227,443.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,318.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)212,124.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45,488.6728,430.4217,058.25
Cash Retained (M)212,124.66212,124.66212,124.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-45,488.67-28,430.42-17,058.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)166,635.99183,694.24195,066.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,375.004,375.004,375.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share38.0941.9944.59
LTM Dividend per Share3.503.503.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share38.0941.9944.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend41.5945.4948.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$342.23$412.79$485.27
Upside / Downside-81.20%-77.32%-73.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)227,443.36225,168.93222,917.24220,688.07218,481.19216,296.38222,785.27
Payout Ratio6.74%23.39%40.04%56.69%73.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,318.7052,662.8289,258.52125,117.04160,249.47194,666.74206,076.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)47,430.6747,914.6648,398.65
Year 2 PV (M)72,403.5973,888.7575,388.99
Year 3 PV (M)91,407.5694,234.4097,118.93
Year 4 PV (M)105,442.92109,813.04114,317.61
Year 5 PV (M)115,363.33121,370.57127,625.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,767,464.191,859,500.151,955,330.82
Equity Value (M)2,199,512.272,306,721.572,418,180.49
Shares Outstanding (M)4,375.004,375.004,375.00
Fair Value$502.75$527.25$552.73
Upside / Downside-72.38%-71.03%-69.63%

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