Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Reece Limited (REH.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.97 - $226.62$212.38
Multi-Stage$33.51 - $36.67$35.06
Blended Fair Value$123.72
Current Price$14.35
Upside762.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.64%9.07%0.240.250.230.190.120.180.180.160.140.12
YoY Growth---3.00%8.70%17.95%62.50%-31.74%0.00%12.89%7.45%18.99%19.70%
Dividend Yield--1.69%1.00%1.24%1.42%0.51%1.91%1.78%1.24%1.86%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)736.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)318.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)417.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147.2292.0155.21
Cash Retained (M)417.96417.96417.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-147.22-92.01-55.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)270.74325.95362.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)645.98645.98645.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$95.97$212.38$226.62
Upside / Downside568.81%1,379.98%1,479.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)736.11783.96834.91889.18946.981,008.531,038.79
Payout Ratio43.22%52.58%61.93%71.29%80.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)318.15412.17517.08633.88763.68907.68960.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)383.38387.01390.64
Year 2 PV (M)447.35455.87464.47
Year 3 PV (M)510.08524.73539.65
Year 4 PV (M)571.60593.58616.19
Year 5 PV (M)631.91662.43694.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,101.3720,023.9820,981.89
Equity Value (M)21,645.6922,647.5923,686.96
Shares Outstanding (M)645.98645.98645.98
Fair Value$33.51$35.06$36.67
Upside / Downside133.51%144.31%155.53%

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