Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Rana Gruber ASA (RANA.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.60 - $117.30$94.90
Multi-Stage$179.89 - $197.73$188.64
Blended Fair Value$141.77
Current Price$68.90
Upside105.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%9.2411.086.1711.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---16.68%79.74%-44.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--13.60%14.32%10.13%16.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)298.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.7437.3422.40
Cash Retained (M)48.4048.4048.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.74-37.34-22.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.3511.0625.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.1037.1037.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.310.300.70
LTM Dividend per Share6.756.756.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.310.300.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.447.047.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$75.60$94.90$117.30
Upside / Downside9.73%37.74%70.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)298.72295.73292.78289.85286.95284.08292.60
Payout Ratio83.80%85.04%86.28%87.52%88.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.32251.49252.61253.67254.70255.67270.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)234.09236.48238.86
Year 2 PV (M)218.86223.35227.88
Year 3 PV (M)204.58210.90217.36
Year 4 PV (M)191.19199.11207.28
Year 5 PV (M)178.64187.94197.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,647.325,941.396,247.58
Equity Value (M)6,674.676,999.177,336.59
Shares Outstanding (M)37.1037.1037.10
Fair Value$179.89$188.64$197.73
Upside / Downside161.09%173.78%186.98%

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