Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Publicis Groupe S.A. (PUB.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$854.35 - $2,496.15$2,339.26
Multi-Stage$346.28 - $378.75$362.22
Blended Fair Value$1,350.74
Current Price$95.68
Upside1,311.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.51%22.62%3.372.870.330.900.401.130.830.670.760.95
YoY Growth--17.49%772.60%-63.35%122.55%-64.21%35.71%23.53%-11.92%-19.58%116.22%
Dividend Yield--3.28%3.42%0.55%1.52%0.99%2.79%1.66%1.22%1.16%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,173.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,579.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,594.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)634.60396.63237.98
Cash Retained (M)1,594.001,594.001,594.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-634.60-396.63-237.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)959.401,197.381,356.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)252.80252.80252.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.804.745.36
LTM Dividend per Share6.256.256.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.804.745.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.0410.9811.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$854.35$2,339.26$2,496.15
Upside / Downside792.92%2,344.88%2,508.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,173.003,379.253,598.903,832.824,081.964,347.284,477.70
Payout Ratio49.76%57.81%65.86%73.91%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,579.001,953.572,370.172,832.673,345.283,912.564,141.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,813.031,830.221,847.40
Year 2 PV (M)2,041.412,080.302,119.55
Year 3 PV (M)2,264.242,329.242,395.47
Year 4 PV (M)2,481.622,577.062,675.22
Year 5 PV (M)2,693.642,823.752,958.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,245.2479,927.9183,751.53
Equity Value (M)87,539.1991,568.4795,748.00
Shares Outstanding (M)252.80252.80252.80
Fair Value$346.28$362.22$378.75
Upside / Downside261.91%278.57%295.85%

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