Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Pioneerindo Gourmet International Tbk (PTSP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,331.43 - $2,558.65$1,822.84
Multi-Stage$1,917.29 - $2,105.37$2,009.53
Blended Fair Value$1,916.19
Current Price$945.00
Upside102.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.14%0.00%13.3111.110.000.000.005.558.884.448.886.66
YoY Growth--19.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-37.50%100.00%-50.00%33.33%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.97%0.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.12%0.12%0.06%0.12%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,724.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,020.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,704.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,744.852,340.531,404.32
Cash Retained (M)13,704.2413,704.2413,704.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,744.85-2,340.53-1,404.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,959.3911,363.7112,299.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)220.81220.81220.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share45.1051.4655.70
LTM Dividend per Share22.7322.7322.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share45.1051.4655.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend67.8474.2078.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.57%2.57%3.57%
Fair Value$1,331.43$1,822.84$2,558.65
Upside / Downside40.89%92.89%170.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,724.2419,204.5519,697.1820,202.4520,720.6821,252.2121,889.77
Payout Ratio26.81%39.45%52.09%64.72%77.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,020.007,575.8410,259.4913,075.8516,029.9419,126.9920,248.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.57%2.57%3.57%
Year 1 PV (M)7,028.267,097.467,166.66
Year 2 PV (M)8,829.999,004.739,181.17
Year 3 PV (M)10,440.5110,751.9411,069.51
Year 4 PV (M)11,874.1012,348.7012,837.38
Year 5 PV (M)13,144.1513,804.1014,490.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)372,035.05390,714.36410,136.54
Equity Value (M)423,352.06443,721.29464,881.56
Shares Outstanding (M)220.81220.81220.81
Fair Value$1,917.29$2,009.53$2,105.37
Upside / Downside102.89%112.65%122.79%

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