Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Pulau Subur Tbk (PTPS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$148.19 - $230.26$186.14
Multi-Stage$342.89 - $377.65$359.92
Blended Fair Value$273.03
Current Price$85.00
Upside221.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%2.203.9722.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---44.56%-82.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.10%3.20%17.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34,041.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,005.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,036.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,808.304,255.192,553.11
Cash Retained (M)21,036.4221,036.4221,036.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,808.30-4,255.19-2,553.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)14,228.1216,781.2318,483.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,167.522,167.522,167.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.567.748.53
LTM Dividend per Share6.006.006.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.567.748.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.5613.7414.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$148.19$186.14$230.26
Upside / Downside74.34%118.98%170.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34,041.5033,701.0833,364.0733,030.4332,700.1332,373.1233,344.32
Payout Ratio38.20%48.56%58.92%69.28%79.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,005.0816,366.2219,658.8322,883.9626,042.6229,135.8130,843.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)15,239.4415,394.9515,550.45
Year 2 PV (M)17,045.0917,394.7217,747.91
Year 3 PV (M)18,475.3919,046.7519,629.77
Year 4 PV (M)19,577.9720,389.3921,225.77
Year 5 PV (M)20,395.3521,457.3822,563.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)652,482.43686,458.71721,835.85
Equity Value (M)743,215.67780,141.90818,552.95
Shares Outstanding (M)2,167.522,167.522,167.52
Fair Value$342.89$359.92$377.65
Upside / Downside303.40%323.44%344.29%

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