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PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$271.42 - $632.38$398.06
Multi-Stage$189.14 - $206.80$197.81
Blended Fair Value$297.93
Current Price$132.13
Upside125.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.51%8.29%0.830.700.710.730.640.610.510.560.620.57
YoY Growth--17.72%-1.15%-2.52%13.56%6.40%17.62%-7.74%-9.56%7.51%53.29%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.60%1.22%1.75%1.23%2.71%1.84%1.89%2.62%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,630.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,454.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)526.07328.79197.28
Cash Retained (M)2,454.962,454.962,454.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-526.07-328.79-197.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,928.892,126.172,257.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.17202.17202.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.5410.5211.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.5410.5211.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.4111.3812.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$271.42$398.06$632.38
Upside / Downside105.42%201.27%378.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,630.362,801.332,983.413,177.343,383.863,603.813,711.93
Payout Ratio6.67%23.33%40.00%56.67%73.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.39653.671,193.391,800.512,481.513,243.433,433.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)591.11596.71602.31
Year 2 PV (M)975.88994.471,013.23
Year 3 PV (M)1,331.421,369.641,408.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,659.371,723.181,788.82
Year 5 PV (M)1,961.282,056.012,154.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,718.1433,250.1434,840.77
Equity Value (M)38,237.2039,990.1541,808.09
Shares Outstanding (M)202.17202.17202.17
Fair Value$189.14$197.81$206.80
Upside / Downside43.14%49.71%56.51%

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