Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Health Care Limited (PGHH.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,119.00 - $13,443.68$7,803.27
Multi-Stage$3,619.84 - $3,949.06$3,781.49
Blended Fair Value$5,792.38
Current Price$14,145.00
Upside-59.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS28.79%22.25%205.00265.00145.00175.00340.0157.8796.4532.50479.0430.25
YoY Growth---22.64%82.76%-17.14%-48.53%487.56%-40.00%196.81%-93.22%1,483.64%9.99%
Dividend Yield--1.45%1.59%0.81%1.26%2.42%0.58%0.80%0.34%5.66%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,141.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,570.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,570.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,428.24892.65535.59
Cash Retained (M)3,570.403,570.403,570.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,428.24-892.65-535.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,142.162,677.753,034.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.4632.4632.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share65.9982.4993.49
LTM Dividend per Share110.00110.00110.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share65.9982.4993.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend176.00192.50203.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,119.00$7,803.27$13,443.68
Upside / Downside-63.81%-44.83%-4.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,141.207,605.388,099.738,626.219,186.919,784.0610,077.58
Payout Ratio50.00%58.00%66.00%74.00%82.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,570.804,411.295,345.966,383.497,533.328,805.669,321.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,004.384,042.344,080.29
Year 2 PV (M)4,405.194,489.104,573.80
Year 3 PV (M)4,774.934,912.015,051.68
Year 4 PV (M)5,115.235,311.955,514.29
Year 5 PV (M)5,427.635,689.795,961.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)93,773.9798,303.28103,005.95
Equity Value (M)117,501.34122,748.46128,187.98
Shares Outstanding (M)32.4632.4632.46
Fair Value$3,619.84$3,781.49$3,949.06
Upside / Downside-74.41%-73.27%-72.08%

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