Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Papoutsanis S.A. (PAP.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.52 - $45.51$42.65
Multi-Stage$6.14 - $6.73$6.43
Blended Fair Value$24.54
Current Price$2.94
Upside734.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.080.020.050.070.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--286.84%-62.49%-23.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.02%0.82%2.27%2.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.230.770.46
Cash Retained (M)5.335.335.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.23-0.77-0.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.104.564.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.9126.9126.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.52$42.65$45.51
Upside / Downside427.90%1,350.56%1,447.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.166.566.987.447.928.448.69
Payout Ratio13.39%28.71%44.03%59.35%74.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.821.883.084.415.927.598.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1.751.761.78
Year 2 PV (M)2.652.702.75
Year 3 PV (M)3.533.633.73
Year 4 PV (M)4.394.564.73
Year 5 PV (M)5.235.485.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)147.76154.89162.30
Equity Value (M)165.29173.02181.04
Shares Outstanding (M)26.9126.9126.91
Fair Value$6.14$6.43$6.73
Upside / Downside108.93%118.69%128.83%

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