Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk (PANI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$246.27 - $349.79$297.28
Multi-Stage$387.71 - $424.89$405.94
Blended Fair Value$351.61
Current Price$11,300.00
Upside-96.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%12.370.000.0029.690.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.12%0.00%0.00%9.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)624,902.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)286,445.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)338,456.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124,980.4378,112.7746,867.66
Cash Retained (M)338,456.26338,456.26338,456.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-124,980.43-78,112.77-46,867.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)213,475.83260,343.50291,588.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16,840.9316,840.9316,840.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.6815.4617.31
LTM Dividend per Share17.0117.0117.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.6815.4617.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend29.6832.4734.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$246.27$297.28$349.79
Upside / Downside-97.82%-97.37%-96.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)624,902.15618,653.13612,466.60606,341.93600,278.51594,275.73612,104.00
Payout Ratio45.84%54.67%63.50%72.34%81.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)286,445.89338,222.71388,935.34438,599.91487,232.29534,848.16566,196.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)304,888.87307,999.98311,111.09
Year 2 PV (M)316,049.44322,532.34329,081.05
Year 3 PV (M)321,280.93331,216.76341,355.36
Year 4 PV (M)321,729.79335,063.99348,808.44
Year 5 PV (M)318,364.42334,942.40352,203.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,947,088.605,204,694.985,472,922.64
Equity Value (M)6,529,402.066,836,450.457,155,482.47
Shares Outstanding (M)16,840.9316,840.9316,840.93
Fair Value$387.71$405.94$424.89
Upside / Downside-96.57%-96.41%-96.24%

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