Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Orsero S.p.A. (ORS.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$183.79 - $365.02$342.08
Multi-Stage$56.28 - $61.61$58.90
Blended Fair Value$200.49
Current Price$13.96
Upside1,336.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.42%0.00%0.690.370.300.210.000.120.120.000.000.00
YoY Growth--88.12%21.07%48.49%0.00%-100.00%2.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.79%2.64%2.27%1.46%0.00%2.49%1.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.273.922.35
Cash Retained (M)21.0021.0021.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.27-3.92-2.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.7317.0818.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.0817.0817.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.861.001.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.861.001.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.611.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$183.79$342.08$365.02
Upside / Downside1,216.52%2,350.40%2,514.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.3533.3935.5637.8740.3342.9544.24
Payout Ratio33.02%44.41%55.81%67.21%78.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.3514.8319.8525.4531.7038.6640.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13.8113.9414.08
Year 2 PV (M)17.2217.5517.88
Year 3 PV (M)20.5721.1621.77
Year 4 PV (M)23.8724.7925.73
Year 5 PV (M)27.1228.4229.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)858.68900.15943.21
Equity Value (M)961.271,006.021,052.45
Shares Outstanding (M)17.0817.0817.08
Fair Value$56.28$58.90$61.61
Upside / Downside303.13%321.90%341.37%

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