Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Orbis AG (OBS.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.95 - $134.09$125.67
Multi-Stage$17.91 - $19.60$18.74
Blended Fair Value$72.20
Current Price$7.00
Upside931.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.73%4.93%0.100.150.200.200.000.150.120.110.090.07
YoY Growth---33.31%-25.03%0.00%0.00%-100.00%19.80%16.68%19.46%24.52%16.41%
Dividend Yield--1.74%2.63%2.90%2.61%0.00%2.14%2.57%2.15%2.23%2.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.280.800.48
Cash Retained (M)4.494.494.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.28-0.80-0.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.213.694.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.479.479.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.95$125.67$134.09
Upside / Downside513.62%1,695.23%1,815.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.396.807.247.718.218.759.01
Payout Ratio29.66%41.73%53.80%65.87%77.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.892.843.905.086.407.878.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2.632.662.68
Year 2 PV (M)3.353.413.48
Year 3 PV (M)4.054.174.29
Year 4 PV (M)4.734.925.10
Year 5 PV (M)5.405.665.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)149.42156.64164.14
Equity Value (M)169.59177.45185.61
Shares Outstanding (M)9.479.479.47
Fair Value$17.91$18.74$19.60
Upside / Downside155.84%167.71%180.02%

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