Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Novus Holdings Limited (NVS.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.39 - $16.12$13.73
Multi-Stage$18.79 - $20.52$19.64
Blended Fair Value$16.68
Current Price$6.30
Upside164.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.72%0.00%0.480.470.000.620.000.260.490.550.680.63
YoY Growth--0.93%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-46.35%-10.12%-20.00%8.92%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.93%10.88%0.00%30.41%0.00%13.85%11.82%11.91%7.98%5.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)572.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)486.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.4471.5242.91
Cash Retained (M)85.4185.4185.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.44-71.52-42.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)-29.0313.8942.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)327.95327.95327.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.090.040.13
LTM Dividend per Share1.481.481.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.090.040.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.61
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.39$13.73$16.12
Upside / Downside80.76%117.87%155.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)572.19566.46560.80555.19549.64544.14560.47
Payout Ratio85.07%86.06%87.04%88.03%89.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)486.78487.49488.14488.73489.26489.73518.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)438.65443.13447.60
Year 2 PV (M)395.23403.34411.53
Year 3 PV (M)356.06367.08378.31
Year 4 PV (M)320.74334.03347.73
Year 5 PV (M)288.88303.92319.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,361.634,588.754,825.23
Equity Value (M)6,161.196,440.246,729.99
Shares Outstanding (M)327.95327.95327.95
Fair Value$18.79$19.64$20.52
Upside / Downside198.21%211.72%225.74%

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