Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Novozymes A/S (NSIS-B.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.05 - $15.86$14.04
Multi-Stage$40.60 - $44.98$42.74
Blended Fair Value$28.39
Current Price$389.10
Upside-92.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.54%-10.84%0.546.083.283.153.193.092.832.572.281.99
YoY Growth---91.16%85.37%4.03%-1.21%3.13%9.27%10.40%12.35%14.70%17.53%
Dividend Yield--0.13%1.54%0.93%0.68%0.79%1.00%0.91%0.82%0.83%0.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,594.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,434.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)318.93199.33119.60
Cash Retained (M)160.26160.26160.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-318.93-199.33-119.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-158.68-39.0840.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.71464.71464.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.093.093.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.753.003.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-13.12%-12.12%-11.12%
Fair Value$12.05$14.04$15.86
Upside / Downside-96.90%-96.39%-95.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,594.671,401.421,231.591,082.34951.17835.90860.98
Payout Ratio89.95%89.96%89.97%89.98%89.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,434.411,260.721,108.06973.89855.96752.31796.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate-13.12%-12.12%-11.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,168.411,181.861,195.30
Year 2 PV (M)951.73973.77996.06
Year 3 PV (M)775.24802.32830.02
Year 4 PV (M)631.48661.06691.66
Year 5 PV (M)514.37544.67576.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,825.6815,698.7716,612.50
Equity Value (M)18,866.9219,862.4320,901.92
Shares Outstanding (M)464.71464.71464.71
Fair Value$40.60$42.74$44.98
Upside / Downside-89.57%-89.02%-88.44%

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