Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (NCKL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,288.07 - $24,961.39$17,083.14
Multi-Stage$3,031.92 - $3,317.31$3,172.00
Blended Fair Value$10,127.57
Current Price$1,190.00
Upside751.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS67.71%0.00%26.4950.218.2615.020.002.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---47.24%507.68%-45.01%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.84%5.67%0.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,987,289.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,367,057.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,620,232.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,597,457.80998,411.13599,046.68
Cash Retained (M)5,620,232.005,620,232.005,620,232.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,597,457.80-998,411.13-599,046.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,022,774.204,621,820.885,021,185.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63,637.1663,637.1663,637.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.2172.6378.90
LTM Dividend per Share37.2037.2037.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.2172.6378.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.41109.82116.10
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,288.07$17,083.14$24,961.39
Upside / Downside428.41%1,335.56%1,997.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,987,289.008,506,462.799,059,382.879,648,242.7510,275,378.5310,943,278.1411,271,576.48
Payout Ratio29.64%41.71%53.78%65.85%77.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,367,057.003,547,895.874,872,242.976,353,765.338,007,300.389,848,950.3210,426,208.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,278,997.303,310,077.843,341,158.39
Year 2 PV (M)4,161,686.164,240,954.604,320,970.84
Year 3 PV (M)5,015,817.825,159,803.935,306,519.55
Year 4 PV (M)5,842,071.926,066,741.526,297,829.77
Year 5 PV (M)6,641,113.766,961,882.047,294,926.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)168,002,835.21176,117,434.97184,542,599.56
Equity Value (M)192,942,522.18201,856,894.89211,104,004.98
Shares Outstanding (M)63,637.1663,637.1663,637.16
Fair Value$3,031.92$3,172.00$3,317.31
Upside / Downside154.78%166.55%178.77%

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