Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas DrillingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$189.95 - $314.23$245.02
Multi-Stage$976.93 - $1,080.42$1,027.63
Blended Fair Value$636.32
Current Price$40.87
Upside1,456.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-47.91%0.010.020.010.610.000.000.005.654.205.72
YoY Growth---55.15%198.46%-99.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%34.52%-26.58%17.28%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.02%0.00%0.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.62%0.64%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.2925.8015.48
Cash Retained (M)200.38200.38200.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.29-25.80-15.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)159.09174.58184.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.1212.1212.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.1314.4115.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.1314.4115.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.6314.9015.76
WACC / Discount Rate4.22%4.22%4.22%
Growth Rate-2.76%-1.76%-0.76%
Fair Value$189.95$245.02$314.23
Upside / Downside364.77%499.50%668.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.43202.81199.25195.75192.31188.94194.61
Payout Ratio2.93%20.35%37.76%55.17%72.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.0541.2675.23108.00139.59170.04180.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.22%4.22%4.22%
Growth Rate-2.76%-1.76%-0.76%
Year 1 PV (M)39.1939.5939.99
Year 2 PV (M)67.8669.2670.68
Year 3 PV (M)92.5295.4098.35
Year 4 PV (M)113.57118.32123.21
Year 5 PV (M)131.39138.29145.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,394.9411,993.0012,615.92
Equity Value (M)11,839.4712,453.8713,093.63
Shares Outstanding (M)12.1212.1212.12
Fair Value$976.93$1,027.63$1,080.42
Upside / Downside2,290.35%2,414.39%2,543.56%

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