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Definitive Analysis

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PT Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,232.46 - $25,251.09$23,663.97
Multi-Stage$3,963.95 - $4,338.37$4,147.72
Blended Fair Value$13,905.85
Current Price$2,030.00
Upside585.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.66%19.58%55.0935.0521.0352.0830.0529.0527.0421.0312.326.68
YoY Growth--57.14%66.67%-59.62%73.33%3.45%7.41%28.57%70.79%84.39%-27.52%
Dividend Yield--2.71%1.39%0.79%2.96%1.15%1.57%1.06%0.71%0.58%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,834,439.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,278,816.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,555,622.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)566,887.95354,304.97212,582.98
Cash Retained (M)1,555,622.831,555,622.831,555,622.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-566,887.95-354,304.97-212,582.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)988,734.881,201,317.861,343,039.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,323.7622,323.7622,323.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share44.2953.8160.16
LTM Dividend per Share57.2957.2957.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share44.2953.8160.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.58111.10117.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13,232.46$23,663.97$25,251.09
Upside / Downside551.85%1,065.71%1,143.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,834,439.773,018,678.353,214,892.443,423,860.453,646,411.383,883,428.123,999,930.97
Payout Ratio45.12%54.09%63.07%72.05%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,278,816.941,632,914.132,027,640.962,466,783.222,954,447.193,495,085.313,699,936.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,521,572.731,535,995.221,550,417.71
Year 2 PV (M)1,760,555.791,794,089.431,827,939.43
Year 3 PV (M)1,995,809.512,053,102.032,111,480.63
Year 4 PV (M)2,227,376.852,313,035.472,401,141.31
Year 5 PV (M)2,455,300.312,573,892.232,697,022.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,529,607.5182,322,616.9286,260,793.72
Equity Value (M)88,490,222.6892,592,731.2996,848,795.73
Shares Outstanding (M)22,323.7622,323.7622,323.76
Fair Value$3,963.95$4,147.72$4,338.37
Upside / Downside95.27%104.32%113.71%

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