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Definitive Analysis

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Murray Income Trust PLC (MUT.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.83 - $11.23$9.49
Multi-Stage$13.25 - $14.50$13.86
Blended Fair Value$11.68
Current Price$8.54
Upside36.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.15%6.26%0.370.430.400.390.270.220.210.230.250.21
YoY Growth---12.77%8.03%2.60%40.71%24.69%4.43%-8.11%-9.09%20.87%2.58%
Dividend Yield--4.38%5.02%4.74%4.65%3.16%2.87%2.48%2.93%3.18%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)117.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.5314.718.82
Cash Retained (M)34.0234.0234.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.53-14.71-8.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.4819.3125.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.17104.17104.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.190.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.190.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.991.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.83$9.49$11.23
Upside / Downside-8.28%11.17%31.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)117.66116.48115.32114.16113.02111.89115.25
Payout Ratio71.09%74.87%78.65%82.44%86.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.6487.2190.7094.1197.45100.70106.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)78.9879.7980.59
Year 2 PV (M)74.3975.9277.46
Year 3 PV (M)69.9072.0674.27
Year 4 PV (M)65.5568.2771.07
Year 5 PV (M)61.3564.5467.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,029.991,083.631,139.47
Equity Value (M)1,380.161,444.201,510.73
Shares Outstanding (M)104.17104.17104.17
Fair Value$13.25$13.86$14.50
Upside / Downside55.14%62.33%69.81%

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