Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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METISA Metalúrgica Timboense S.A. (MTSA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$279.91 - $912.10$854.77
Multi-Stage$122.04 - $133.45$127.64
Blended Fair Value$491.20
Current Price$44.80
Upside996.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.38%9.61%2.573.711.771.770.720.770.630.530.530.53
YoY Growth---30.66%109.93%-0.02%145.56%-6.17%22.41%18.01%0.00%0.00%-48.30%
Dividend Yield--5.85%7.62%4.31%4.48%2.28%4.43%3.72%3.02%3.93%5.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.215.133.08
Cash Retained (M)19.0219.0219.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.21-5.13-3.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.8113.8915.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.958.958.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.211.551.78
LTM Dividend per Share2.462.462.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.211.551.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.674.014.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$279.91$854.77$912.10
Upside / Downside524.79%1,807.97%1,935.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.0343.7046.5449.5652.7856.2157.90
Payout Ratio53.64%60.91%68.18%75.46%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.0126.6231.7337.4043.6750.5953.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24.6724.9025.14
Year 2 PV (M)27.2627.7828.30
Year 3 PV (M)29.7730.6331.50
Year 4 PV (M)32.2233.4634.73
Year 5 PV (M)34.6036.2738.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)943.27988.831,036.14
Equity Value (M)1,091.791,141.871,193.81
Shares Outstanding (M)8.958.958.95
Fair Value$122.04$127.64$133.45
Upside / Downside172.41%184.91%197.87%

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