Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Metro Inc. (MRU.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.95 - $223.42$140.69
Multi-Stage$68.91 - $75.23$72.01
Blended Fair Value$106.35
Current Price$106.97
Upside-0.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.17%11.34%1.331.241.161.081.000.900.740.650.570.50
YoY Growth--7.13%6.63%7.41%8.79%10.96%20.69%14.84%12.90%13.58%11.23%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.81%1.55%1.61%1.75%1.67%1.57%1.60%1.43%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,020.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)311.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)709.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)204.08127.5576.53
Cash Retained (M)709.00709.00709.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-204.08-127.55-76.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)504.92581.45632.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)221.73221.73221.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.282.622.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.282.622.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.684.034.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$95.95$140.69$223.42
Upside / Downside-10.30%31.52%108.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,020.401,086.731,157.361,232.591,312.711,398.041,439.98
Payout Ratio30.52%42.41%54.31%66.21%78.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)311.40460.92628.57816.061,025.271,258.231,331.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)416.80420.75424.70
Year 2 PV (M)513.98523.77533.65
Year 3 PV (M)603.41620.74638.39
Year 4 PV (M)685.53711.90739.01
Year 5 PV (M)760.76797.51835.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,298.6912,892.7213,509.49
Equity Value (M)15,279.1815,967.3816,680.90
Shares Outstanding (M)221.73221.73221.73
Fair Value$68.91$72.01$75.23
Upside / Downside-35.58%-32.68%-29.67%

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