Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Monex, S.A.B. de C.V. (MONEXB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$172.85 - $784.11$303.00
Multi-Stage$102.98 - $112.73$107.76
Blended Fair Value$205.38
Current Price$20.00
Upside926.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS33.66%17.59%2.110.110.110.390.390.500.392.480.000.96
YoY Growth--1,850.00%0.00%-72.00%0.00%-21.88%28.00%-84.38%0.00%-100.00%129.63%
Dividend Yield--10.57%0.83%0.90%3.10%2.75%3.54%2.16%24.73%0.00%6.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,573.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,558.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)714.65446.66268.00
Cash Retained (M)3,558.273,558.273,558.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-714.65-446.66-268.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,843.613,111.613,290.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)645.81645.81645.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.404.825.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.404.825.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.434.845.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$172.85$303.00$784.11
Upside / Downside764.25%1,415.00%3,820.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,573.273,805.534,052.894,316.334,596.894,895.695,042.56
Payout Ratio0.42%18.34%36.25%54.17%72.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.00697.781,469.252,338.063,313.624,406.124,664.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)638.83644.88650.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,231.501,254.951,278.63
Year 3 PV (M)1,794.171,845.671,898.15
Year 4 PV (M)2,327.972,417.502,509.59
Year 5 PV (M)2,834.012,970.893,113.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,675.8960,461.6663,354.05
Equity Value (M)66,502.3769,595.5672,804.37
Shares Outstanding (M)645.81645.81645.81
Fair Value$102.98$107.76$112.73
Upside / Downside414.88%438.82%463.67%

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