Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,893.68 - $18,452.99$17,293.16
Multi-Stage$2,492.05 - $2,725.82$2,606.79
Blended Fair Value$9,949.98
Current Price$2,460.00
Upside304.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.02%0.06%34.0037.0036.0136.8621.5018.440.0435.5726.1620.93
YoY Growth---8.11%2.76%-2.33%71.43%16.62%42,637.12%-99.88%36.00%25.00%-38.08%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.38%1.23%1.70%0.82%0.86%0.00%1.70%0.99%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,290,432.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)598,021.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)692,410.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)258,086.43161,304.0296,782.41
Cash Retained (M)692,410.39692,410.39692,410.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-258,086.43-161,304.02-96,782.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)434,323.96531,106.37595,627.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,907.4813,907.4813,907.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.2338.1942.83
LTM Dividend per Share43.0043.0043.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.2338.1942.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend74.2381.1985.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,893.68$17,293.16$18,452.99
Upside / Downside139.58%602.97%650.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,290,432.131,374,310.221,463,640.381,558,777.011,660,097.521,768,003.851,821,043.97
Payout Ratio46.34%55.07%63.81%72.54%81.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)598,021.74756,890.37933,885.271,130,691.641,349,137.181,591,203.471,684,465.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)701,855.48708,508.13715,160.79
Year 2 PV (M)803,013.70818,308.86833,748.31
Year 3 PV (M)901,546.91927,427.08953,797.86
Year 4 PV (M)997,504.761,035,865.971,075,323.14
Year 5 PV (M)1,090,936.061,143,628.681,198,337.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,163,312.6731,620,211.9533,132,870.20
Equity Value (M)34,658,169.5836,253,950.6837,909,238.27
Shares Outstanding (M)13,907.4813,907.4813,907.48
Fair Value$2,492.05$2,606.79$2,725.82
Upside / Downside1.30%5.97%10.81%

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