Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Multi Hanna Kreasindo Tbk. (MHKI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$109.84 - $179.33$140.90
Multi-Stage$331.58 - $365.81$348.36
Blended Fair Value$244.63
Current Price$180.00
Upside35.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.790.005.510.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.86%0.00%2.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36,784.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,932.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,852.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,357.004,598.122,758.87
Cash Retained (M)25,852.8225,852.8225,852.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,357.00-4,598.12-2,758.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,495.8321,254.7023,093.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,641.103,641.103,641.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.085.846.34
LTM Dividend per Share3.003.003.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.085.846.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.088.849.35
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$109.84$140.90$179.33
Upside / Downside-38.98%-21.72%-0.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36,784.9836,417.1336,052.9635,692.4335,335.5034,982.1536,031.61
Payout Ratio29.72%41.78%53.83%65.89%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,932.1515,213.3519,407.8323,516.8927,541.8431,483.9333,329.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14,313.7914,459.8514,605.90
Year 2 PV (M)17,180.5217,532.9317,888.92
Year 3 PV (M)19,587.0520,192.8020,810.90
Year 4 PV (M)21,583.0022,477.5123,399.55
Year 5 PV (M)23,213.3324,422.1125,680.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,111,435.391,169,310.411,229,571.66
Equity Value (M)1,207,313.091,268,395.601,331,957.65
Shares Outstanding (M)3,641.103,641.103,641.10
Fair Value$331.58$348.36$365.81
Upside / Downside84.21%93.53%103.23%

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