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Definitive Analysis

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Morgan Sindall Group plc (MGNS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.02 - $315.12$190.17
Multi-Stage$90.55 - $98.81$94.61
Blended Fair Value$142.39
Current Price$45.75
Upside211.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.73%17.17%1.161.000.900.670.200.510.450.350.270.24
YoY Growth--16.63%10.57%34.67%236.46%-61.29%15.35%27.98%27.27%11.86%2.61%
Dividend Yield--2.99%4.51%5.90%2.66%1.30%3.18%4.23%2.44%3.68%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)161.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.2234.5120.71
Cash Retained (M)161.10161.10161.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.22-34.51-20.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)105.88126.59140.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.1748.1748.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.202.632.91
LTM Dividend per Share2.392.392.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.202.632.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.595.025.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$127.02$190.17$315.12
Upside / Downside177.63%315.67%588.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276.10294.05313.16333.51355.19378.28389.63
Payout Ratio41.65%51.32%60.99%70.66%80.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.00150.91191.00235.66285.33340.45360.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)136.76138.06139.35
Year 2 PV (M)156.87159.85162.87
Year 3 PV (M)175.40180.44185.57
Year 4 PV (M)192.46199.86207.47
Year 5 PV (M)208.11218.16228.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,492.133,660.803,835.93
Equity Value (M)4,361.734,557.184,759.80
Shares Outstanding (M)48.1748.1748.17
Fair Value$90.55$94.61$98.81
Upside / Downside97.92%106.79%115.99%

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