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Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A. (MDNE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$165.31 - $824.70$346.00
Multi-Stage$118.39 - $129.75$123.96
Blended Fair Value$234.98
Current Price$29.93
Upside685.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.650.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)353.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)248.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.7344.2026.52
Cash Retained (M)248.95248.95248.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.73-44.20-26.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)178.22204.75222.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.3384.3384.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.112.432.64
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.112.432.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.353.673.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Fair Value$165.31$346.00$824.70
Upside / Downside452.32%1,056.02%2,655.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)353.63372.40392.17412.99434.91458.00471.74
Payout Ratio29.60%41.68%53.76%65.84%77.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.68155.22210.83271.91338.88412.20436.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)144.46145.85147.23
Year 2 PV (M)182.62186.14189.69
Year 3 PV (M)219.21225.58232.06
Year 4 PV (M)254.27264.16274.34
Year 5 PV (M)287.85301.91316.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,895.629,330.289,781.77
Equity Value (M)9,984.0410,453.9210,941.62
Shares Outstanding (M)84.3384.3384.33
Fair Value$118.39$123.96$129.75
Upside / Downside295.56%314.18%333.50%

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