Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Medicare Group Q.P.S.C. (MCGS.QA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.69 - $4.09$3.34
Multi-Stage$5.86 - $6.45$6.15
Blended Fair Value$4.75
Current Price$7.04
Upside-32.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.24%-3.01%0.220.260.240.280.280.290.390.290.500.48
YoY Growth---14.42%6.50%-12.59%-0.88%-3.24%-26.03%32.70%-41.07%3.52%61.00%
Dividend Yield--4.89%6.15%4.18%3.91%2.89%4.91%6.15%4.25%5.23%4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2210.766.46
Cash Retained (M)30.2830.2830.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.22-10.76-6.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0619.5223.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)281.26281.26281.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.10%-1.10%-0.10%
Fair Value$2.69$3.34$4.09
Upside / Downside-61.83%-52.51%-41.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.1085.1684.2283.3082.3981.4983.93
Payout Ratio64.83%69.87%74.90%79.93%84.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.8259.5063.0866.5970.0073.3477.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-2.10%-1.10%-0.10%
Year 1 PV (M)55.1355.6956.26
Year 2 PV (M)54.1655.2856.40
Year 3 PV (M)52.9854.6256.29
Year 4 PV (M)51.6153.7555.96
Year 5 PV (M)50.1052.7155.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,385.441,457.651,532.85
Equity Value (M)1,649.421,729.701,813.18
Shares Outstanding (M)281.26281.26281.26
Fair Value$5.86$6.15$6.45
Upside / Downside-16.70%-12.65%-8.43%

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