Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Medallion Bank (MBNKP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$312.78 - $368.51$345.34
Multi-Stage$69.54 - $76.22$72.82
Blended Fair Value$209.08
Current Price$10.10
Upside1,970.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-8.91%0.390.000.310.000.000.000.000.010.611.01
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-54.48%-99.00%-40.22%2.01%
Dividend Yield--4.49%0.00%4.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.13%30.64%10.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.905.563.34
Cash Retained (M)38.9438.9438.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.90-5.56-3.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.0433.3835.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.0224.0224.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.251.391.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.251.391.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.481.621.71
WACC / Discount Rate5.72%5.72%5.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$312.78$345.34$368.51
Upside / Downside2,996.82%3,319.26%3,548.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.5047.4050.4853.7657.2560.9762.80
Payout Ratio12.50%28.00%43.50%59.00%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.5613.2721.9631.7242.6554.8858.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.72%5.72%5.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.4312.5512.67
Year 2 PV (M)19.2819.6420.01
Year 3 PV (M)26.0926.8427.60
Year 4 PV (M)32.8734.1435.44
Year 5 PV (M)39.6341.5443.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,539.831,614.201,691.42
Equity Value (M)1,670.131,748.921,830.68
Shares Outstanding (M)24.0224.0224.02
Fair Value$69.54$72.82$76.22
Upside / Downside588.50%620.98%654.69%

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