Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mafia Trends Limited (MAFIA.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.24 - $21.47$17.65
Multi-Stage$27.68 - $30.50$29.06
Blended Fair Value$23.36
Current Price$13.21
Upside76.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.480.930.56
Cash Retained (M)6.956.956.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.48-0.93-0.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.476.036.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.444.444.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.231.361.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.231.361.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.461.54
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.24$17.65$21.47
Upside / Downside7.76%33.61%62.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.407.337.257.187.117.047.25
Payout Ratio6.08%22.86%39.65%56.43%73.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.451.682.884.055.216.336.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1.551.561.58
Year 2 PV (M)2.452.502.55
Year 3 PV (M)3.193.293.39
Year 4 PV (M)3.793.944.10
Year 5 PV (M)4.264.484.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)107.54113.14118.97
Equity Value (M)122.77128.92135.31
Shares Outstanding (M)4.444.444.44
Fair Value$27.68$29.06$30.50
Upside / Downside109.52%120.01%130.91%

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