Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mahachai Hospital Public Company Limited (M-CHAI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.83 - $119.98$112.44
Multi-Stage$34.17 - $37.46$35.78
Blended Fair Value$74.11
Current Price$16.10
Upside360.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.92%6.08%0.700.800.700.200.300.330.410.440.420.30
YoY Growth---12.57%14.52%250.52%-33.55%-10.24%-18.17%-6.65%4.86%40.00%-23.13%
Dividend Yield--3.56%1.25%1.77%0.65%1.67%2.40%2.25%2.24%1.53%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)96.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.3012.077.24
Cash Retained (M)56.0056.0056.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.30-12.07-7.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.6943.9348.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate4.85%4.85%4.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$101.83$112.44$119.98
Upside / Downside532.51%598.36%645.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)96.52102.80109.48116.60124.18132.25136.21
Payout Ratio41.99%51.59%61.19%70.80%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.5353.0366.9982.5599.83119.02126.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.85%4.85%4.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)50.1150.5851.06
Year 2 PV (M)59.8060.9462.09
Year 3 PV (M)69.6171.6173.64
Year 4 PV (M)79.5482.6085.74
Year 5 PV (M)89.5993.9198.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,118.575,365.805,622.49
Equity Value (M)5,467.215,725.435,993.42
Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
Fair Value$34.17$35.78$37.46
Upside / Downside112.24%122.26%132.66%

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